Spain's loss to Mali (82-73) and Germany's victory over Japan (74-58) have turned the group upside down. All four teams are tied at one win and one loss, and any of them could finish in any of the four positions. Everything is decided on Monday, with both games at the same time, 17:50: Spain-Japan and Mali-Germany.
The four scenarios
Spain would finish first if they beat Japan and Germany beats Mali. The head-to-head record with the Germans favors Spain. The hosts would finish second, Japan third, and Mali would be eliminated.
Spain would finish second if they beat Japan and Mali beats Germany. The tie with the African team hurts Spain after Saturday's loss, so Mali would be first, Germany third, and Japan would go home.
Spain would finish third if they lose to Japan and Mali beats Germany. With a 1-2 record, both Spain and Germany would be tied, but Spain would advance on tiebreaker. Japan would be first, Mali second, and the hosts would be the ones eliminated.
Spain would finish fourth and be eliminated if they lose to Japan and Mali also loses to Germany. The tie at 1-2 with the African team would send Spain home. Germany would finish first, Japan second, and Mali third.
And now, the part that decides the World Cup
Because advancing isn't enough: how you advance matters.
If Spain finishes first, they skip the Round of 16 play-in and go straight to the quarterfinals, where they would face the second-place team from Group C or the third-place team from Group D. Possible opponents include Australia, Belgium, Turkey, Italy, Czech Republic, or China. The problem comes later: that side of the bracket leads to a semifinal matchup with the United States.
If they finish second, they would have to play the play-in against the third-place team from Group B, likely South Korea, Hungary, or Nigeria, since France is expected to top the group. If they win, they'd face Australia or Belgium in the quarterfinals and France in the semifinals.
If they finish third, the play-in opponents would be the same, but the prize is much worse: a quarterfinal matchup against the United States.
In other words, the best sporting scenario isn't necessarily finishing first, but rather finishing second: it's the only path that avoids the United States until a hypothetical final.