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oct 03 2026Pat Riley has done it again. After a disappointing season that ended in the play-in, Miami closed the most talked-about trade of the summer in July: Giannis Antetokounmpo, two-time MVP and 2021 champion, leaves Milwaukee after 13 years to play at the Kaseya Center. With him and Bam Adebayo, the Heat have perhaps the best frontcourt pairing in the league and are back as contenders in the East.
Where they're coming from: 43 wins and out in the play-in
The 2025-26 season was one of survival. Tyler Herro played just 33 games due to injuries, and the Heat finished 43-39, tenth in the East, eliminated in the play-in. Still, Erik Spoelstra left his mark. According to NBA.com, 24.9% of the Heat's possessions were in transition, the highest percentage of any team in 22 years of records for that type of play.
Giannis experienced the worst year of his career in Milwaukee. A calf injury and another to his knee limited him to 36 games, the lowest figure of his career, though when he played he averaged 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists with 62.4% from the field. The Bucks finished 32-50 and his departure was a foregone conclusion.
The offseason: all in on Giannis
The price was steep. Miami sent Milwaukee Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kasparas Jakučionis, plus the 13th pick in the draft (Nate Ament), unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a pick swap in 2030 and a second-rounder. Bobby Portis arrived in Miami in the same deal.
With Giannis and Adebayo not threatening from outside, the priority was shooting. Tim Hardaway Jr. arrived with 224 three-pointers and 40.7% last season, and Klay Thompson, who signed a two-year, $13 million deal with a player option in the second year, after parting ways with Dallas. Klay is fourth all-time in three-pointers made. They're joined by Portis, with 45.6% from three, and Andrew Wiggins, who was already on the roster, at 41.4%. Nick Richards completes the frontcourt with a non-guaranteed contract. In addition to those who left in the trade, Norman Powell and Jahmir Young are out.
The rotation
It points to this starting five: Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Wiggins, Giannis and Adebayo. Off the bench, Spoelstra will have Hardaway, Portis, Pelle Larsson, Nikola Jović, Simone Fontecchio and Richards.
Larsson is being pointed to as a possible breakout candidate. The Swede averaged 11.4 points in his second year and arrives in good form after the FIBA window, where he scored 31 points against Finland and 23 against France.
Also read
- Nick Richards trains with the Heat and positions himself for Giannis's rotation
- Free agents still without a team: Harden, DeRozan and Kuminga
- LeBron James signs with the Sixers and shakes up the NBA
The season's big questions
The first is Giannis's health. He's 31 years old, has a recent injury history and plays a game heavily based on athleticism. The Heat need him to arrive at the playoffs healthy.
The second is the half-court offense. With Giannis and Adebayo near the basket, opponents will pack the paint. That's why Miami has signed so many shooters, and the bet is that the team continues to run like last season: with Giannis, one of the best players in the league in transition, the fast break should be even more devastating.
The third is age. Giannis, Adebayo, Wiggins, Portis, Thompson and Hardaway each have at least nine seasons in the NBA. It's a roster with Finals experience, but also with wear and tear.
And there's the point guard position. Behind Mitchell there's no clear successor, and NBA.com suggests the position could be filled by committee or with the remaining open roster spot.
The schedule: key dates
The opener on October 21 against the Timberwolves is Giannis's official debut with the Heat and LaMelo Ball's debut with Minnesota. Between November 13 and December 1 comes a brutal stretch: eight of nine games against playoff teams, including the champion in New York on November 27, plus Giannis's first matchup against the Bucks.
On Christmas, the Heat visit Boston, one of the teams that tried to sign Giannis. On January 28, Giannis returns to Milwaukee for the first time in a different uniform. And on April 8, down the stretch, they host the Sixers with LeBron, another of Miami's targets this offseason.
Piratas' prediction
With Giannis healthy, the Heat have the best defensive pairing in the league, a coach capable of getting the most out of any roster and enough shooting for the experiment to work. The price has been very high in future assets, the roster is veteran and the East is more balanced than ever. Our prediction: between 49 and 54 wins, a direct playoff spot between third and sixth seed, and a second-round series as the minimum goal. With Giannis in May, Miami can go further than any of their rivals.
