The NBA tips off tonight, and the opening night already captures the summer's storylines. At 21:00 (CET), Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons open the season. They were the two best teams in the East during the regular season and neither reached the conference finals. At 1:00 AM, Madison Square Garden raises the Knicks' championship banner before hosting the 76ers with LeBron James and Jaylen Brown. At 3:30 AM, Spurs and Thunder replay the Western Conference Finals decided in a Game 7.
There are two clear favorites for the championship, and both play in the same conference. In the East, there's no single clear favorite. The champion has several teams behind them that have changed significantly during the offseason.
The West: A Battle Between Oklahoma City and San Antonio
The Oklahoma City Thunder won 64 games, the best record in the league, and yet watched the Finals on television. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, MVP for the second consecutive year, remains the player holding everything together. His main reinforcement is someone already on the roster: Jalen Williams, who played only 33 games due to wrist and hamstring issues. With him healthy, the offense no longer depends entirely on his star, which was exactly what was missing in May. The other question mark is Chet Holmgren, who fell well short of his level against Wembanyama in the conference finals. The salary cap forced trades of Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe. Cason Wallace inherits the role of defending the opposing team's best perimeter player, and Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, and Jared McCain complete a still-deep perimeter.
Aday Mara enters that rotation. The Zaragoza center, 12th pick in the draft after winning the NCAA championship with Michigan, has been one of the preseason sensations. Against Milwaukee, he didn't miss any of his ten field goal attempts. Ahead of him are Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, so his minutes will depend on what he earns. His debut also has an off-court dimension: Casademont Zaragoza claims it retains his rights, while the Thunder respond that after three years in the NCAA, they don't need a letter of release.
The San Antonio Spurs are the rival that knows Oklahoma City best. They beat them eight of twelve times last season and eliminated them on their home court. Then they reached the Finals, where they led by ten or more points in all five games and lost the series 4-1. Victor Wembanyama, Defensive Player of the Year by unanimous vote and MVP of the Western Conference Finals, signed the largest contract extension in franchise history during the offseason. Around him is a young group that should grow: Stephon Castle has established himself as the second playmaker and Dylan Harper was at times the most reliable Spur in June. De'Aaron Fox must move on after a weak Finals with injuries. Tobias Harris arrives for the starting power forward spot, Keldon Johnson was Sixth Man of the Year, and Billy Donovan joins Mitch Johnson's coaching staff to provide more solutions in tight finishes.
Behind them, the Denver Nuggets still have Nikola Jokic, the most complete player in the league. Alongside him continue Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, and DeMar DeRozan arrives on a minimum contract. Their problem is on defense: Denver has been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA over the last two seasons, especially in transition. Additionally, Jokic has an option to exit his contract next summer, and in Athens, Panathinaikos has already publicly said it will try.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have changed their style. After eliminating the Nuggets and taking the Spurs to six games with Anthony Edwards injured, they brought LaMelo Ball from Charlotte to finally have a point guard who can speed up the game. Jonathan Kuminga signed for two seasons at a low price, Jaden McDaniels remains on the wings, and Rudy Gobert, at 34 years old, maintains one of the league's best defenses.
Further down are the Houston Rockets, who won 52 games without Fred VanVleet and now get him back along with Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, and the Los Angeles Lakers of Luka Doncic, the league's leading scorer last season, who no longer have LeBron.
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The East: The Champion and Its Pursuers
The New York Knicks finished the regular season third in the East without giving a sense of dominance. In the spring, they were a different team: they swept the 76ers and Cavaliers, won the Finals in five games, and ended 53 years without a title. Jalen Brunson, Finals MVP, remains in charge, with the same starting five that won the ring: Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns. The major loss is Mitchell Robinson, who has gone to Boston. Andre Drummond arrives for rebounding, but doesn't protect the rim like he did. There's also an open matter in the front office: negotiations to extend Towns, Hart, and McBride have been postponed until well into the season.
The Philadelphia 76ers are the team that has changed the most. To a group that won 45 games and was swept by the Knicks in the second round have been added Jaylen Brown, traded from Boston after finishing sixth in MVP voting, and LeBron James. LeBron turns 42 in December and faces his 24th season on a two-year, $8 million contract. Nick Nurse will have a starting five with Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Brown, LeBron, and Joel Embiid, plus a bench reinforced with Dean Wade, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Anfernee Simons. The ceiling is very high. The risk is too: Embiid has played just 109 games, including playoffs, over the last three seasons, and backup center Ariel Hukporti has missed the season with an Achilles tendon tear.
The Boston Celtics won 56 games last season almost without Jayson Tatum, who returned late in the season after tearing his Achilles. Now they have him from day one, but without Jaylen Brown, and with Paul George as the second star. Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, newly acquired Robinson, and Mike Conley complete a rotation where Spanish player Hugo González also competes for minutes.
The Cleveland Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference Finals and lost without winning a game. They haven't broken up the core: Donovan Mitchell and James Harden remain together on the perimeter and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the paint. To fill the small forward gap they've had for years, they signed Peyton Watson to a four-year deal after a five-team trade. Mario Hezonja, arriving from Real Madrid, is also on the roster.
The Detroit Pistons finished first in the East with 60 wins and fell in the second round to Cleveland in a Game 7. Cade Cunningham is the centerpiece. Jalen Duren, an All-Star last season, signed five years and $200 million at the last minute after a standoff that kept him out of the first days of training camp, and Ausar Thompson has also re-signed. To add outside shooting, they brought John Collins, Isaiah Joe, and Taurean Prince.
To that list add two teams that have changed significantly this offseason: the Toronto Raptors, with Kawhi Leonard alongside Scottie Barnes, and the Miami Heat, who have paired Giannis Antetokounmpo with Bam Adebayo.
Piratas' Forecast
In the West, the path to the Finals runs through a Thunder-Spurs matchup again, with Denver and Minnesota as alternatives if one of the two falters. In the East, Knicks and 76ers start a step ahead. The champion has a core that already knows how to win in the spring, and Philadelphia has more talent than anyone if Embiid and LeBron arrive healthy in April. Celtics, Cavaliers, and Pistons have the roster for either of the top two to fall by the wayside.