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oct 03 2026The Rockets arrive at the season in no man's land, caught between being a good team and being a contender. They have 52 wins in the last season, one of the greatest scorers in history, and two young All-Stars or nearly so, but they've fallen in the first round for two straight springs. The last one, moreover, left a wound: they were eliminated by the Lakers without Luka Dončić or Austin Reaves.
Where They're Coming From: 52 Wins and Another April Disappointment
Kevin Durant's first season in Houston was solid. He averaged 26.0 points on 41.3% from three-point range in 78 games, approaching his 38th birthday. Alperen Sengun posted 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists and returned to the All-Star Game, while Amen Thompson solidified himself with 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists. The Rockets finished 52-30, fifth in the West.
Their biggest weapon was rebounding. According to NBA.com, they grabbed 54.5% of available rebounds, the best percentage of any team in the last 30 years, and they've led that stat for a second straight season.
In the playoffs, everything fell apart. Durant injured his knee in a practice before the first game and missed the start of the series, and the Lakers went up 3-0. Houston won the next two, but in Game 6, at home, they scored just 78 points, their worst output of the season, and lost 2-4.
The Offseason: Shooting and Returns
The big acquisition is actually a return: Fred VanVleet, who missed the entire last season with injury, comes back to run the team. Alongside him, the front office sought outside shooting. Bogdan Bogdanović arrives, one of the league's most efficient shooters, and Chip Engelland, the prestigious shooting coach who won two rings with the Spurs, joins the coaching staff. Marcus Smart brings defense and veteran experience at point guard, and Bruce Thornton rounds out the additions.
Amen Thompson signed a five-year, $208 million extension before training camp, and the core of Ime Udoka's team remains intact. Dorian Finney-Smith, Aaron Holiday, Jeff Green, JD Davison and Josh Okogie depart.
The Rotation
The expected starting five is VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Durant, Jabari Smith Jr. and Sengun. Off the bench, Udoka will have Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Bogdanović, Smart and Steven Adams, who missed the second half of last season.
NBA.com points out an important nuance: VanVleet's return, a 6-foot point guard, could diminish some of the rebounding advantage that was the team's signature strength.
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The Season's Big Questions
The first is Durant. At 38 years old, he's still scoring like few others, but the physical issues in April made clear how much the team depends on him. Managing his minutes during the season will be key to having him healthy for the playoffs.
The second is shooting. Sengun shot 30.5% from three and Amen Thompson barely shoots from outside. Without a real perimeter threat, defenses pack the paint. Bogdanović and Engelland are there to change that.
The third is the young players' next step. NBA.com points to Amen Thompson as a breakout candidate despite his new contract: he's already one of the league's best perimeter defenders, but he needs a reliable shot to become a star. It also remains to be seen whether Jabari Smith Jr. is a reality or just a promise.
And there's the West, which has strengthened from top to bottom.
The Schedule: Key Dates
On October 23, the first Friday of the season, the Rockets face the Spurs in Austin in a special exhibition game on the calendar. In November comes a brutal stretch of 17 games, with two matchups against the Nuggets and games against the Spurs, Thunder, Celtics, Timberwolves, Heat and Pacers. On November 28 comes the Durant vs. LeBron matchup, perhaps the last between the two.
On January 13, Durant returns to Oklahoma City, the franchise where his career began. And on March 25 comes the Thompson twins matchup, Amen and Ausar, against the Pistons.
Piratas' Prediction
Houston has an excellent foundation: the league's best rebounding team, elite defenders and a historic scorer. VanVleet's return and the arrival of shooters address their two biggest problems, playmaking and outside shooting. But the West won't wait, and the team depends too much on a 38-year-old player. Our prediction: between 49 and 53 wins, a direct playoff spot between fourth and sixth seed, and the obligation to finally win a series. If Amen Thompson improves his shooting, Houston can make a bigger leap than expected.
